Monday, August 28, 2017

Does Iran's dangerous out on oil

Does Iran's dangerous out on the oil market for the Russian economy?

On Thursday, Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said that the country will increase production to 3.8 million barrels per day within six months after the lifting of sanctions, and up to 4 million b / d - less than a year. asked leading analysts to comment on how dangerous the Russian economy potential return Iran to the commodity market. In April, Iran's oil production totaled 2.78 million barrels per day. If Iran will be able to increase production in line with the forecast of the minister, he will become the second largest oil producer among the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. "We have sent a clear signal about our OPEC to increase production plans, - said Zanganeh. - The main market for us is Asia, followed by Europe after it. " Head of asset management Absolut Bank Ivan Fomenko said that Iran's full return on the energy market - a very long process. "However, if we look globally, it is not a very positive event for the Russian Federation as well as the lifting of sanctions against Iran will lead to a substantial increase in the supply of oil, which in turn, will cause a decline in prices - says the expert. - At the same time there are a number of other factors that can also have a negative impact on oil. Nevertheless, we estimate the premium Iranian factor of 4-8 dollars in oil prices. " Andrew Schenck, an analyst of "Alfa Capital" claims that Iran's access to the energy market has already largely taken into account in the pricing and significant threat to Russia is not. "Of course, this will lead to an increase in supply in the oil market, but this is not the main reason for the imbalance of supply and demand", - says the expert. Ekaterina Krylova, principal analyst of Promsvyazbank is skeptical about the statement of the Minister, "will be significant, it is unlikely production growth - she says. - All fields in Iran worn, with the year 1977-78 there was not a single new project. Therefore, the oil recovery rate is very low. In addition, Iran will be hard to attract foreign investment. " "Most likely, Iran's output market impact on oil prices will not be significant - agrees with Ekaterina Krylova Liza Ermolenko, emerging markets economist at Capital Economics. - It is not clear how Iran could increase the supply. In any case, in order to resume delivery, it takes time. " In April, "six" international mediators and Iran announced the parameters of a future agreement on Tehran's nuclear program. The parties declare that in key areas the compromise is, although differences remain. By the end of June "six" and Iran should develop the appropriate specific document.

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