Opinion: The crisis in emerging markets - the third wave of global financial crisis

downturn
in emerging markets - is not just a
the result of the local events. according to
Goldman Sachs, this is the third wave
the global financial crisis. The note
from last week's analysts write: "Growth
uncertainty on the prospects for weak
EM, lower commodity prices and the potential
increase in interest rates in the United States -
All this gives rise to new fears
about asset price stability and
It marks the beginning of a new wave
the global financial crisis. "

A fall
emerging markets against the backdrop of the fall
commodity prices - is the next step for
the crisis the real estate market in the US and its
spread on European gosbondy
countries.

fears
that the US Federal Reserve for the first time in nearly
decade increase interest rate
spurred massive outflows
from developing economies, including the
Asian. But the Fed meeting September 16 - 17
again not over the growth rate, and
Many analysts have suffered these expectations
next year.

it
helped stabilize slightly
shaky stock markets and currencies
developing countries, but some
analysts believe the stabilization of a
temporary suspended.

one
from Goldman reasons for concern
related about emerging markets
the fact that the low interest rates
the world's leading central banks have caused
the growth of credit debt, especially
in China. This is likely to prevent
future economic growth.

analysts
note that the deteriorating prospects
for emerging market economies and
Bad reporting - possible way to
stagnation. However, they add that,
probably fears are exaggerated. "Most
weakening of the emerging markets
and China is likely to reflect the change
the balance of economic growth, not
structural impairment. In fact, to
to stabilize the situation, probably,
it will take time (as it was in the United States and
Europe). But it should lead to a reduction
economic imbalances over time
and provide a platform for normalization
economy, earnings and interest rates. "

But
when it comes to returning
lost value, Goldman does not
necessarily waiting for that developing
markets will return all of its lost luster.

but
not all market participants are convinced,
that emerging markets will restore
its economy. Growth rates are reduced,
and is compounded by the lack of this process
structural reforms over the past 10 years.
He writes about this in his October
forecast investment group Deutsche
Asset and Wealth Management. "Ultraekspansionistskaya
Monetary policy in the advanced
economies has prompted many investors
invest in developing
markets - in particular, because it is
they offer the advantage of interest
rate. However, favorable conditions
funding is actually
only helped developing markets
disguise its growing economic
weakness".

company
Emerging markets as a result of
easy-money-stimulation
face is not the only high
debt load, but with a potentially
burdensome interest payments
against the background of weak economic growth.
According to the forecast of Deutsche Asset, will
increase the risk of loan defaults and
increase the number of bankruptcies.
The combination of high rates of investment,
debt growth and reduce growth
EM has made more vulnerable,
than ever before.

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