Engines markets: major events of the week

The key economic data this week will be the figures of inflation and the US housing market. It is also expected statistics on inflation in the euro zone.

Minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which will be published in the night from Monday to Tuesday, will be particularly important for the future of the Australian dollar, because it can give a hint on the likely timing of the next RBA rate decrease.

Wednesday will be published the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which should bring more clarity regarding the future intentions of the American regulator in relation to betting.

"A single tightening already built into the current dollar rates, but there are serious doubts that the Fed will go for a second tightening of monetary policy. Moreover, more and more sound version that raising rates this year may be the last, and then again follow its decline dictated by the deteriorating economic situation in the United States. This uncertainty contributes to the fact that investors will not rush to act ", - says Vladimir Zotov, head of the Directorate of the financial markets of the Ural Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

Wednesday is traditionally expected to be published on the dynamics of oil and petroleum products in the US data. On Friday, Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the number in the US active rigs.

Oil prices today rose sharply during US trading after GoldmanSachs expressed the view that the lack of demand in the oil market can suddenly give way to a shortage of supply because it takes quite a lot of oil, and manufacturers significantly reduced production.

Recall that last week oil quotations rose due to supply disruptions from Nigeria and Canada and in the US inventory reduction. However, the market does not believe that the current level of oil prices stable, and is waiting for a correction. Many analysts point out that the events in the market too rapidly develop in comparison with the real physical changes.

Positive economic data, released on Friday, the US (retail sales) and Europe (Germany's GDP in the first quarter) point to a general improvement in the economy, which implies an increase in demand for raw materials and, consequently, higher oil prices, writes Mark Bradford, FG BCS analyst. In addition, the support factor is the risk of supply disruptions from Nigeria and Venezuela, which neutralized the negative from the strengthening of the dollar (in light of the growth expectations of the Fed raising rates) and weak statistics from China.

"But do not forget that the factor of supply shortages rather short-lived, while the increase in Saudi production reinforces fears of market saturation and the problems in China have the potential to become a long-term" - warns Mark Bradford.

"We expect WTI to reach a peak of $ 48.30 before starting adjusted down to a potential breakdown of the level of $ 40 per barrel. Traders should start looking for short positions at the level of $ 48.30 and more aggressive players can wait for a high of $ 47.15. Stop-loss is placed at the level of $ 49, and the lower target will be the level of $ 41.90 and below "- writes the financial blog The Market Master.

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