Will the dollar as strong in the IV quarter?
for dollars and the sharpest increase
volatility of currencies in recent years
were the main features of the financial
markets in the third quarter. concluding
months of the year with a high probability
will be no less "bouncy".
The dollar was the biggest jump
quarterly rise in US
currency, since the same period
2008, when the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered
the collapse of the global house of cards
economy, and during the crisis in the dollar
not invested just lazy. Such
large fluctuations in the reserve currency, in
which traded almost everything in the world,
since Apple's shares and
finishing on zinc futures - of course
also had an impact on all financial
markets. Especially felt this currency
emerging market and some
larger than all of the 22 assets and
market instruments, tracked
Reuters, Chinese rose
A-Shares (that shares traded only
RMB on the Shanghai and Shenchzhenskoy
Exchange), which added 16%. Leaders to reduce
- Oil futures Brent, who
for the quarter it has lost almost 14%.
More than half of the considered 22
positions showed a decline.
In the euro area, where the increased threat
deflation, the ECB loosened its currency and
eased monetary policy to
historic levels. Towards
Euro dollar is now an all-time high. By
Compared with the yen, "green" is also updated
multi-year highs. Throw
Recent dancing with a tambourine, which
demonstrated around the Scottish currency
referendum - we can see that serious
fever and pound. variability courses
the world's major currencies in the third
quarter, as a result, was unprecedented.
Short-term fluctuations (particularly
As for the pound) beat all average
What will happen?
The main thing from
which will depend fourth trends
quarter - the question of how
Investors will keep a collective
the belief that the US economy
He will continue to outperform their peers
and that the Federal Reserve will soon raise interest
bet. If this belief is enough
strong and the market will not prevail
pessimism - Dollar
It will increase further.
Global Strategic Development
Morgan Stanley, Hans
Redekert, commented: "High
volatility will feature
the next few months, because the dollar
It continues to grow. The financial world is not
It consists of isolated from each other
parts - in the environment is out of sync
the exchange rate is automatically
in the center of attention - because he
performs a kind of damping
role between different currencies, transfers
the momentum going. "
Emerging markets will cease to grow?
dollar and growing volatility - bad
omen for developing
markets, because investors are
becoming less risk averse. They
They prefer to place their funds
the relatively safe and therefore
more attractive developed markets
- such as the United States. Accordingly, the flow
Investments in emerging markets will
continue to fall steadily, as well as
emerging market currencies have suffered
in the III quarter. For example,
Brazilian real reached a six-year
low on Monday, his fall
It was about 10% during the quarter.
The last months of the year, most likely,
It will be characterized by exactly the
the same movements.
Jamie McGeever, Reuters columnist. Adapted translation - Aleksandr_Baht.
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