Sechin predicted Russians long life with cheap oil
The stabilization of oil prices at a relatively favorable level for Russia may be temporary. This was at the summit of the heads of energy companies in the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, said the head "Rosneft" Igor Sechin.While the oil market is kept afloat by the fact that Russia and OPEC countries cut production, said Sechin: "Achieved as a result of the price level of $ 50 per barrel for the benefit of the Russian budget and Russian companies, but the market is a condition is not sustainable".
According to the head "Rosneft"The problem of the oil pact, under which member countries have reduced production by 1.8 million barrels a day, is that a number of manufacturers do not participate in it (the United States, Canada, Brazil).
"In the current state, we can not talk about a sustainable stabilization or reverse the negative market trends. It can be stated that the period of low oil prices for a long time"- Sechin said.
He added that he considered various scenarios - from 40-50 to 30 dollars per barrel.
"Long enough balance to reach $ 40 per barrel of the market will lead to the production of half loss ratio - primarily on deepwater projects in Brazil, in the Canadian oil sands, will create problems for shale producers, with the exception of high-performance sections of the Permian Basin"- Sechin said.
Russia as an oil producer "remain competitive"but "consumer market is not going to help"Said the head "Rosneft".
For the company, according to Sechin, the new fall of oil prices (if it takes place) is not a problem. "We will continue to work just as stable"- Sechin said adding that "Rosneft" important fiscal regime, which determines the amount payable to the budget.
oil to drop below $ 30 a barrel will lead to a new wave of reduction of Russia's GDP, decline in income will increase the outflow of capital and cause difficulties in servicing external debt, warns the Report of the Monetary Policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
Risk CBR scenario lays the oil at 25 dollars and involves the collapse of the ruble to 95 rubles per dollar and higher, noted earlier, analysts Raiffeisenbank.
The fact that in its calculations of the Central Bank lays a sharp decline in imports - it should be around 30%, in order to justify the balance of payments outlook for the regulator (surplus of $ 20-25 billion), and to achieve this collapse can only be a significant weakening of the ruble, Raiffeisenbank analyst says Denis Poryvai.
According to him, with oil at $ 25 and a dollar for 95 rubles, inflation could exceed 10%, and the Central Bank to meet the country's demand for payment of the external debt in foreign currency, it is necessary to resume operation dollar repo and credits for the banks of the gold reserves of 45-55 billion dollars.
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