USDCAD Bank of Canada's decision

USD / CAD: Bank of Canada's decision on interest rates

Current trend

The era of extreme
loose monetary policy of the American central bank comes to an
end. On Monday said Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen,
He is stressing that "now the Fed gives the economy the possibility to move by inertia,
measured. "

published
Wednesday minutes of the March meeting of the Federal Reserve showed that the leaders of the Central Bank
USA inclined to to begin reducing the portfolio and treasury
mortgage bonds constituting 4.5 trillion dollars. many economists
equate reduction Fed's balance sheet to tighten monetary policy. This
the process usually leads to an increase in value of the dollar, because sale of government bonds
can pull in an increase in their yield and the dollar.

Janet
Yellen yesterday affirmed that interest rates in the US will reach approximately 3%
For two years (at the moment the current range of 0.75% -1.00%).

Janet Yellen
also he believes that in other developed countries, economic growth and inflation are restored
and, probably, the central bank will begin to curtail incentive programs.

In this regard,
it will be interesting to know tomorrow's decision by the Bank of Canada interest
rate, which is published at 14:00 (GMT).

Current
rate level of 0.5% in Canada. Canada is a net net exporter of oil, and
Oil is the main export commodity of the country. The Canadian dollar, while remaining
commodity currency, sensitive to oil quotations. The price of oil at the end of
last month, adjusted by 10% after a recent fall and continues
rise due to supply disruptions in Libya and Canada. In this case, Canadian
the dollar, which has a correlation with oil prices of 92% since the middle of last month, almost,
standing still.

If tomorrow
The Bank of Canada only hint at the possibility of an early increase in interest rates
Canada, the Canadian dollar strengthened sharply on the currency market, including in
pair USD / CAD.

And vice versa,
pronounced tendency of the Bank of Canada to continue the loose monetary
policy will contribute to weakening of the Canadian dollar.

In any
if during the period of publication of the decision of the Bank of Canada rate is expected to highest
volatility in the bidding for the Canadian dollar and the pair USD / CAD.

levels of support and
resistance

Since the middle of last month, the pair USD / CAD traded mostly in a range between the levels of support
1.3300 and resistance 1.3430. Currently the pair USD / CAD has found support near 1.3340 levels (EMA200 on 4-hour chart)
1.3315 (the lower line of the rising channel on 4-hour chart).

OsMA and Stochastic indicators do not give clear signals. Much of the dynamic pair USD / CAD will depend on tomorrow
Bank of Canada's decision on the interest rate and the accompanying comments.

In case of breaking the support level of 1.3300 USD / CAD pair will go to
the support level 1.3240 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

The reverse scenario is a short-term break
1.3375 resistance level (EMA200 1 hourly chart) and further growth in
the rising channel on the daily chart with the targets 1.3430, 1.3590.

levels
Support: 1.3315, 1.3300, 1.3240, 1.3200, 1.3155, 1.3100, 1.3010, 1.2840,
1.2760, 1.2635

Resistance levels: 1.3375, 1.3430, 1.3590, 1.3680

trade scenarios

Buy Stop 1.3360. Stop-Loss 1.3320.
Take-Profit 1.3375, 1.3430, 1.3590, 1.3680

Sell ​​Stop 1.3320. Stop-Loss 1.3360. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3240, 1.3200,
1.3155, 1.3100, 1.3010, 1.2840, 1.2760, 1.2635

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