Analyst from the company ForexMart (ForeksMart)
AUD / USD. 03.04. The Bears went on the offensive on the eve of the meeting of the RBA.
The currency pair AUD / USD continues trading within the price corridor 0.7600-07670 and has crept close to its bottom. Last week, the Aussie was supported by higher Chinese rates but failed to increase the advantage. Tomorrow, the Reserve Bank of Australia will make a decision on interest rates. Business activity in Australia has slowed since the last meeting, the volume of retail sales was much worse predictable by analysts. It may influence the decision and lead to a drop in the Aussie. Who bears test 0.7600 with the immediate goal to 0.7560, which can be reached during the day and open the way to 0.7500. In the evening, the US will publish the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, and three members of the Fed will deliver speeches. It's - the last thing that should put pressure on the couple before the meeting of the RBA. In case of positive news for the US dollar is highly possible further attack bears.
USD / RUB. 03.04. Dollar shows correction.
Last week was very successful for the ruble - the Russian currency has updated two-year highs, reaching 55.78. However, in April for the pair USD / RUB began with the corrective movement upward. "Bulls" took the initiative, and the dollar could rise to 56.12 rubles. Oil is now trading above $ 53 per barrel, thereby supporting the ruble. Therefore, while maintaining a cost of a barrel of oil, the ruble will retain its position near yearly highs. Moreover, by Wednesday at the Russian currency will be able to once again fall below the highs. Then, after the release of labor market data in the US and the US Federal Reserve meeting minutes, the ruble will be suspended. Today we expect the movement of the instrument near the lows.
Brent. 03.04. Increase in oil capped at $ 54.
The past week was marked by a rise in price of oil on the commodities market by about 5%. Quotes Brent able to gain a foothold above the level of $ 53. The rising cost of support in favor of OPEC policy, showing the conditions of the Vienna Agreement. In addition, the more likely it becomes an extension of the contract to reduce world oil production for another six months. Minister of Kuwait made a proposal to extend not only the agreement of OPEC +, but also to attract further reduce the country's production volume of the oil cartel.
Russian Energy Minister announced to cut production by 200 thousand barrels per day in March. In April, it plans to reduce production to 300 thousand - the level agreed at the conclusion of the transaction. In Libya, the armed unrest, resulting in the production was stopped in two key fields. These events have a positive impact on the overall reduction in oil production and, consequently, the cost of hydrocarbon.
However, still there is a negative factor affecting the situation on the oil market of raw materials. The US continues to increase the number of active drilling rigs, and, as a result, the volume of oil production. To date, the oil activity involved 662 platform. This factor hinders the strengthening of the "black gold" in the market, and we can hardly expect growth of quotations above $ 54 per barrel.
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