Opinion: Bear stock market has already begun?
What to do,
if the bull market in stocks has ended,
just no one noticed? Such
question asks Andrew Laptorn chapter
department of Equity Research at Societe
Generale. And he has a few things,
who is on his side.
he also
He says it's not just the recent
terrible fall in commodity prices,
but a real harbinger of slowdown
economic growth. And last
a collapse in emerging markets or
the recent collapse of the long-term interest
Rates confirm this.
And it was
not that the bull market, which
really it began in March 2009,
already incredibly old. So called
"Low quality" stocks that
more sensitive to the recession, suddenly
We started performing something bad, something good. FROM
the beginning of July as Laptorn notes, shares
"High Quality" They were crushed
stock "Low quality" in all
stock markets, including the United States.
Societe Generale sees
This is also a sign
that the bear market begins.
"When
look at the US stock market
through the prism of performance
investment can
to see that investors are positioning
themselves in this way, as it were
himself in a collision with a slowdown
economy"- says Laptorn. Him
warning may be timely:
Dow Jones Industrial Average fell again on Friday
more than 1,000 points from its
spring peak.
scary and
surprisingly, it's like the old
proverb "Sell in May and go away" -
this advice may come in handy now!
just what we needed.
Oil falls,
raw metals also not very
attractive lately. A
yield of 30-year Treasury
US bonds, for example, also fell to the
40 basis points - from 3.25% to 2.83%.
Long-term interest rates are
tend to be a strong barometer
economy. This sharp downward movement
- of course, negative.
investors
already worried about the slowing
Economic growth in China, whose growth
was the engine of the world economy
For more than ten years. American
market participants even after strong
Friday's data on all jobs
More and more are waiting for the day when free
money will not. many economists
believe that the Federal Reserve
the system is likely to start raising
short-term interest rates
next month. But, as I suggested
Stenli Fisher, vice chairman of the Fed,
the central bank may still have to wait,
before raising rates.
Meanwhile,
Societe Generale also indicates that the boom
US stock market, which began in March,
2009 was the third in power since 1900.
As pointed out by the Bank's strategy, there are two more such
markets that were stronger and that
ended in 1929 and 1999, but in
fact, they did not end very well. And the truth, panic
or very experience has never been a good idea. According to
the late Dan Bunting, UK
investmenedzhera, "the fundamental
Economics always looks awful".
real
Now the danger is that US stocks
It is somewhere between expensive and very
expensive, based on various
historical estimates. costly
stock markets tend to provide income
below the average for a long
time virtually independent of
what is happening in the economy. cheap
markets, by contrast, are usually given high
profitability.
Of course,
nobody wants to be expensive shares
weak market. Usually, those who own
high-quality stocks or have
Good global investment portfolio,
They will worry about them much
stronger.
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